Discussion in 'Beta Discussion' started by TheMaster, Dec 6, 2017.

  1. TheMaster

    TheMaster New Member

    Guys i think the Hit-chance is not what it states it is.
    Multiple people stating the same ingame, that 3 or more shots in a row with +90% hit-chance all miss.

    Maybe you can have a look at it again pls
  2. Vesuvius_SWIE

    Vesuvius_SWIE Administrator Staff Member

    IT works, or the programmers would say it does, when you miss its frustrating, but people don't complain when 10/10 of their hits at 95% works...
  3. Vesuvius_SWIE

    Vesuvius_SWIE Administrator Staff Member

    Someone like Amish seems to get it the worst, but then someone like Xeen doesn't. I fall somewhere inbetween, where my odds are just about right. So don't know what to say.
  4. TheMaster

    TheMaster New Member

    Ok, tested this over a small sample rate of 10 full salvos in a Colossus vs a Leviathan.
    Colossus is great to test numbers because of his 10 weapons loadout.
    No Skills, and fired up close with weapons stating 95%.
    Whats a bit odd is that i mixed up rockets and beam.

    Anyway, here are the numbers over 10 full salvos with 10 weapons:
    90 Hits with 10 Misses

    The question of hit/miss being accurate is always bound to the size of the sample rate.
    95% maybe correct over an infinite number or large sample rate but on the field it feels a bit off because especially in small ships you are not firing that often to see the 95%.

    EDIT: Forgot to ad my verdict, the % should be normalized over a range. Like 95% over 100 shots or some other value you can wrap youre head around.
  5. Gant

    Gant Member

    Common misunderstanding of probability.

    The probability of 95% does not say that you get 95% hits over N amount of tries. The percentage displaying of the chance is probably misleading but better to read for non-math savvy users than 19/20 chance to score a hit.
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017
  6. TheMaster

    TheMaster New Member

    I should have formulated my issue differently.
    Probability and hit chances is nothing you can rely on if you "shoot/calculate" with small samples like we do on grid.
    If you miss 3 times in a row and die the other 12 times in the future will not help you.

    Better then hit/miss would be just to have damage scaling at different ranges.

    At least you could play with more tactics then relying on the dice god.
    But i guess on this issue it's Alea iacta est from the devs.
  7. Gant

    Gant Member

    Do you suggest to remove any hit chance then?
  8. TheMaster

    TheMaster New Member

    Well, i find hitchances akward but i also can't wrap my head around the idea that an interstellar civilication can not hit targets because stupid, the madness needs reason. :)

    If you got turrets, you need to take into account velocity of the ship, turret tracking,distance and size, which would mean the closer you get to a small fast object the harder it will be hit. This leads to a hit probability distribution that makes sense.

    In Space Wars this could be a formula out of attributes that are already present or can be implemented to keep it simple.
    A-Shipsize, use the tons B-Speed, based on engines C-Distance in Hex D-Ad tracking numbers to turrets in m/s.

    If you got rockets the same Numbers can be taken just with some different assumptions and usage.
    Based on shipsize, speed of the target, distance and tracking ability of a rocket and rocket type.

    Based on this you can tell if and how hard the damage will be during combat and don't have to pray that you will get lucky and hit.

    Just an idea!

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